Summary List Placement
UBS is warning investors that worrying about inflation or focusing on a basic reflation trade aren’t the best ways to get ahead in today’s stock market.
While some investors go risk-off and others take a risk-on approach, UBS strategist Keith Parker says investors need to find the dividing lines between the firms that can handle inflation pressures and those that will fall short.
“We expect the pace of outperformance for the reflation theme to slow in the coming months, but accelerate for stocks with strong pricing power vs weak,” he wrote in a note to clients. “We believe stocks which have greater ability to pass on higher prices should be better positioned to outperform.”
The combination of snarled supply lines, worker shortages, and a quick economic rebound have created spikes in prices and inflation, and that’s contributing to the broad reflation trade today. But as the pace of month-to-month inflation increases slows down, it will be better to take another approach.
“A number of factors make the strong vs weak pricing power trade attractive now: it’s working across most sectors, it’s relatively cheap, has better pricing trends and much lower margin expectations for Q2,” Parker said.
Pricing power is simply the ability for a company to increase its prices in order to offset higher costs. Parker says the biggest winners going forward combine that power with margin momentum, which evaluates how bullish analysts are about the companies’ profit margins and sales growth.
Meanwhile, less pricing power and higher input cost exposure are signs of trouble for other companies.
“After inflation jumps, companies with strong pricing power should notably outperform weak firms based on history,” he wrote in a note to clients. “Strong pricing power stocks have typically started to outperform with a slight lag following an acceleration in inflation above 2%.”
Parker focused on industries where …read more