The US Capitol at night, January 20, 2018, in Washington, DC. | Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images
Democrats’ path to a Senate majority is tenuous. These races are their best shot.
Republicans’ razor-thin three-seat majority in the Senate will be among the biggest fights during the 2020 election cycle, as Democrats look to not only win the White House but also gain full control of Congress.
Part of the reason this is such a big opportunity for Democrats is that Republicans will have to defend 22 seats in 2020 (many were first elected 2014 — a very strong year for Republicans) meaning Democrats are on offense. They are up in just 12 states.
Democrats do have certain factors playing in their favor. Trump’s low approval rating could be a drag on Republicans’ reelection bids, helping some Democrats ride to victory. After all, Trump is polling on net at -13 in Colorado, -15 in Maine, and -7 in Arizona — the places where Democrats have their best shots — according to Morning Consult.
But even with all that going for them, the path to a majority is still tenuous.
“What makes this map very deceiving was in 2018, Democrats had to defend five seats in states Trump won by 19 points or more,” said Jennifer Duffy, a Senate expert at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “In this case, there’s no Republican sitting in a state that Clinton won by more than 5.”
Just three Republican seats seem truly competitive, as far as the Cook Political Report is concerned: Colorado, Arizona, and Maine. The rest is a sea of red, including one seat Democrats have to defend in ultraconservative Alabama.
If Democrats manage to retake the White House, a Senate majority stands between them and the ability to pursue any real legislative agenda and, crucially, …read more
Source:: Vox – All