Surveys and polls: who will win Pakistan election 2018?


Pakistan is all set to witness the second consecutive democratic transition of power in General Elections 2018 to be held on July 25.While all the major political parties lay claim to power, surveys and polls conducted by non-government organizations an insight into how people are going to exercise their right to franchise and which political party is more popular than others.Here are some surveys and polls published in this newspaper:Which party is leading in Punjab?Conducted by Institute of Public Opinion Research (IPOR), a constituency-wise survey of entire Punjab has found the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz maintaining popularity. The opinion poll was carried out between April 15 and June 2 this year with a response rate of over 72 percent. All National Assembly constituencies of Punjab (141) were surveyed with average sample size of 1,420 respondents from each constituency. This is in contrast with most country-wide surveys, where the total respondents generally range between 3,000 and 4,000.Although, the PML-N is ahead with 51 percent vote bank, it has largely preserved its vote with only a 2 percent increase in comparison with 2013. This is in contrast with the significant increase in PTI’s vote — from 19 percent in 2013 to 30 percent in 2018.Read more: IPOR survey finds PML-N leading in Punjab, PTI gaining groundHow will Pakistan voteGallup Pakistan (national), Pulse Consultant (national) and IPOR (provincial) polls show that PML-N remains the preferred party among voters in the largest province, but PTI has gained ground and narrowed the gap significantly. PTI remains the dominant party for voters in KPK, while PPP is ahead in Sindh. Balochistan, there is a three party mix. Nationally polled respondent in the Gallup poll shows PML-N ahead, while the PTI has taken the lead in the Pulse survey. Undecided voters to play decisive role in polls.Read …read more

Source:: The News International – Latest news

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