Prognosticator slashes Warriors title chances after team’s rare two-game losing streak

What a difference two duds make.

The Warriors, playing on the road and with half their roster in orthopedic supports and devices, lost consecutive games last weekend. Such a turn of events would be little noted nor long remembered in almost any other NBA outpost. But it turned heads in the Bay Area given that in the four years Steve Kerr has coached the team, the Warriors rarely have chased a loss with another loss.

It also turned heads at FiveThirtyEight, the numbers-crunching website that endeavors to predict the outcome of everything from college hoops to presidential elections. One of its regular features is parsing the NBA standings on a weekly basis and assigning probable outcomes for all 32 teams.

This week FiveThirtyEight gave the Warriors a 27 percent chance of reaching the Finals (down from 32 a week ago) and a paltry 18 percent chance of winning their third championship in four years (down from 24). Can you imagine if the stock market dropped 25 percent in one week? We’d all be waving white flags at our mortgage lenders.

Despite these disconcerting numbers, the Warriors are ranked third in the NBA by FiveThirtyEight. Houston is given a 46 percent chance of winning it all. Toronto is at 22.

We hasten to add that these predictions are fluid. The Warriors, for example, were rated a 46 percent chance to make the Finals and a 35 percent of winning a championship before the season started. That didn’t buoy your spirits, did it?

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Source:: The Mercury News

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